A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
