Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, while the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
